Luke Riley

He explicitly says he 'probably lean[s] Luke Riley' and closes with a hedge that 'anything could happen' between two quality strikers.

Undefeated and a solid striker with good combinations, real volume, body work, knees and elbows mixed in, and counter-striking of his own; the analyst calls him the slightly better striker of the two. His one real weakness is takedown defense, though in practice it has not cost him because opponents tire out trying to hold him down. He also carries a durable chin.

backs Aswell as live underdog

An undefeated prospect with the more diverse striking arsenal of the two, mixing punches, kicks, elbows and knees with good volume and good counter-striking ability, and a tendency to build pace as a fight progresses. Expected to win comfortably if the fight stays at kicking range, but his takedown defense is called not very good (untested so far) and the analyst thinks Aswell can close to boxing range and win there instead.

Picks Riley ("going to pick Luke Riley") but immediately calls it a total stay-away, says the betting value may sit with Grad, repeats the root-beer idiom, and tells the viewer to just let this fight play out -- the idiom plus an explicit stay-away framing, which the confidence-bar rule treats as a hedge on the win itself.

As of 2025-11-18, a UFC debutant the analyst calls very solid on the feet: really good combinations, he puts punches and kicks together well, good volume, works the body, mixes in knees and elbows, counters well, and has the cardio to sustain it, typically building as the fight goes on. His clearest weakness is his takedown defense, which the analyst calls his biggest detriment; if he avoids being taken down for large stretches he is favored to win on the feet.