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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator
Lukasz Brzeski
Heavyweight · “The Bull”

Lukasz Brzeski

1-6-0
Volume Machine Precision Striker KO-Prone Gets Dropped
6'3"Height
78"Reach
OrthodoxStance
34Age
0KO wins
0Sub wins
0%Finish rate
8:26Avg fight

Skill profile

Rated 0–100 · where 138 MMA has read him, his grades and tags set each axis and the stats only nudge inside his band · stats alone where he is silent · the rim is reserved for specialists
Striking — Average, rated 54 of 100 · 138 MMA: striking decent · Jul 2025 · stats read 50 → nudged +4 inside the band · tag ko power: good (+3) · tag pace: high volume (+2) · claims striking power +1, striking volume +2, kicking +2, pressure +2 (+6) Accuracy — Average, rated 69 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Striking D — Below avg, rated 40 of 100 · claims striking defense -1 (-3) Durability — Weak, rated 6 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Wrestling — Weak, rated 7 of 100 · claims td offense -1 (-2) TD Defense — Below avg, rated 26 of 100 · 138 MMA tag td defense: suspect · Jul 2025 · stats read 6 → nudged -8 inside the band · claims td defense -1, getup -1 (-4) Grappling — Below avg, rated 31 of 100 · 138 MMA: grappling decent · Jul 2025 · stats read 15 → nudged -8 inside the band · claims sub defense -1, ground and pound +1 (+0) Control — Weak, rated 11 of 100 · claims top control +1, ground and pound +1 (+6) Striking Accuracy Striking D Durability Wrestling TD Defense Grappling Control
striking decent
4 analyst reads graded this phase
  • decent UFC 318 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · July 15, 2025 watch ↗
  • decent UFC 310 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · December 3, 2024 watch ↗
  • decent UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · July 23, 2024 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Zombie Full Card Breakdown, Predictions, & Analysis (UFC Singapore) · August 22, 2023 watch ↗
grappling decent
5 analyst reads graded this phase
  • decent UFC 318 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · July 15, 2025 watch ↗
  • decent UFC 310 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · December 3, 2024 watch ↗
  • decent UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · July 23, 2024 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night Allen vs Curtis Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown (UFC Vegas 90) · April 2, 2024 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Zombie Full Card Breakdown, Predictions, & Analysis (UFC Singapore) · August 22, 2023 watch ↗
wrestling not yet read
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read
striking decent 4 reads
grappling decent 5 reads
wrestling not yet read
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read

138 MMA anchors Striking, TD Defense, Grappling · his tags and claims adjust Striking D, Wrestling, Control · stats alone on Accuracy, Durability.

Built on 59 minutes of tracked cage time across 7 statted fights — every axis is held down until there is more tape, so read this as a sketch rather than a verdict.

Volume Machine 138 MMA · Jul 2025 tags pace: high volume
Precision Striker average accuracy — rates 69 of 100 among UFC veterans
KO-Prone 3 of 6 losses came by knockout
Gets Dropped knocked down 4 times in 59 minutes of cage time
Career rates — the raw numbers behind the chart
Sig. strikes landed / min4.69
Sig. strikes absorbed / min3.78
Striking accuracy49.3%
Striking defense55.3%
Knockdowns / 15 min0.0
Takedowns / 15 min0.0
Takedown accuracy0.0%
Takedown defense31.6%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.0
Control time2.0%
Record vs .500+ opponents0-5

Insider info

6 analyst reads · 138 MMA · our paraphrase, never his words
vs Ryan Spann coinflip UFC 318 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · July 15, 2025
strikingdecent grapplingdecent

He states outright he has 'no confident read' and calls it a 'tricky one to pick' where either man could win at any point, before settling on Brzeski for output and leg kicks and capping it with the root-beer idiom.

A decent, forward-pressing striker who leans on a heavy leg kick and good volume, though he spins more than he should. His grappling is decent too: when he gets on top he has good control and ground-and-pound, but his takedown defense is not good and the analyst says he tends to tire and fall apart as a fight wears on.

Strengthforward pressure
Strengthheavy leg kick
Strengthgood volume
Strengthgood top control and ground-and-pound when on top
Weaknessspins too often
Weaknesstakedown defense not good
Weaknesstires and fades as the fight goes on
pace · high volumetd defense · suspect
vs Kennedy Nzechukwu coinflip UFC 310 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · December 3, 2024 · 1 read since
strikingdecent grapplingdecent

Names Nzechukwu as the pick but separately tells viewers to avoid betting on this fight entirely -- an explicit stay-away instruction alongside the named winner.

Decent striker who presses forward with good power and a leg kick called devastating; spins often, a habit the analyst dislikes but concedes sometimes works. Decent grappler with good top control and ground-and-pound when he gets there, but takedown defense is below average. Cardio has been a recurring issue in his fights. He is 1-4 in his last five.

Strengthheavy leg kick
Strengthforward-pressure power
Strengthtop control and ground-and-pound
Weaknessbelow-average takedown defense
Weaknesscardio concerns in fights
Weakness1-4 in last five
td defense · suspectko power · good
vs Mick Parkin clear UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · July 23, 2024 · 2 reads since
strikingdecent grapplingdecent

says Parkin grounds him and works from top position en route to a finish; his only hedge ('might not') is on whether Parkin finishes, not on who wins.

A forward-pressure striker who has lost some of his power for reasons he can't pin down, alongside a visible physique change. On the ground he is a 'good hammer, poor nail' -- fine once on top, but easy to take down and hold down.

Strengthforward pressure with decent power and good volume
Strengthheavy leg kick
Strengthgood top control and ground-and-pound once on top
Weaknesstakedown defense not very good
Weaknesspower has dropped off from before
ko power · decenttd defense · suspect
vs Valter Walker clear UFC Fight Night Allen vs Curtis Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown (UFC Vegas 90) · April 2, 2024 · 3 reads since
grapplingdecent strikinggood

Gives a direct, specific mechanism (takedowns into control, a possible late ground-and-pound finish or a grinding decision) and closes with unambiguous language -- 'Walker's the pick... pretty clear what we're looking at here.' No hedge on the win itself.

Rated as probably the better pure striker in this matchup, with good power, good forward pressure and a heavy leg kick, though he is criticized for spinning too much. A stacked board mark captures a mentality issue spoken directly: effective while he is winning, but reported to fall apart once he starts losing. His grappling is decent, with usable top pressure and ground-and-pound if he gets on top, but his takedown defense isn't rated highly.

Strengthprobably the better pure striker in this matchup
Strengthgood power
Strengthgood forward pressure
Strengthheavy leg kick
Strengthdecent top pressure and ground-and-pound if on top
Weaknessspins too much, called a disliked habit
Weaknessmentality reportedly crumbles once the fight turns against him
Weaknesstakedown defense isn't the best
vs Waldo Cortes Acosta coinflip UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Zombie Full Card Breakdown, Predictions, & Analysis (UFC Singapore) · August 22, 2023 · 4 reads since
strikinggood grapplingdecent

Explicit, stated indecision right up to the moment of recording, including a direct line that the pick could still flip, plus direct advice to play the total rather than the straight winner.

Good striking built around a very heavy, powerful leg kick and forward pressure, undercut by spinning more than he needs to. Decent grappling with good top control and good ground-and-pound, though he rarely shoots and his takedown defense is called out in the harshest single word used for any fighter on this card. The deciding weakness is his cardio: he is described fading and performing poorly once tired, as early as round one.

Strengthgood striking, very heavy leg kick
Strengthgood top control and ground-and-pound
Weaknessspins more than he should
Weaknessshoots rarely, takedown defense a clear hole (exact rung not forced -- see vocabulary-gap note)
Weaknesscardio fades badly, as early as round one
vs Karl Williams clear UFC Fight Night Yan vs Dvalishvili Predictions And Full Card Breakdown UFC Vegas 71 · March 7, 2023 · 5 reads since

Reached through an explicit decision-tree (does the wrestler land the takedown before the striker lands the knockout) and closed with the hammer-and-nail framing the analyst uses for the two men -- a confident, reasoned pick rather than a bare assertion.

A wild but effective striker with heavy leg kicks and real power in his hands, willing to come forward and throw. His takedown defense is a clear hole, and his own grappling is poor once he is put on the mat and has to defend there -- a 'good hammer, poor nail' profile in the analyst's words. He also spins often, which the analyst notes can cut either way.

Strengthheavy leg kicks
Strengthreal power in the hands
Strengthcomes forward, willing to engage
Weaknesstakedown defense isn't there
Weaknesspoor once on the ground defending (the 'nail' side)
td defense · suspect

Striking trend

Sig. strikes/min, last 7 fights · green = win
August 13, 2022 vs Martin Buday — 7.87/min (L) Aug '22 March 11, 2023 vs Karl Williams — 1.73/min (L) Mar '23 August 26, 2023 vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta — 4.64/min (L) — only 3.0 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Aug '23 April 6, 2024 vs Valter Walker — 3.87/min (W) Apr '24 July 27, 2024 vs Mick Parkin — 7.09/min (L) — only 3.4 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Jul '24 December 7, 2024 vs Kennedy Nzechukwu — 6.6/min (L) — only 4.8 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Dec '24 July 19, 2025 vs Ryan Spann — 1.8/min (L) — only 2.8 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Jul '25

Fight history

7 UFC bouts · newest first · opponent records as of fight night
L Ryan Spann 22-11 walk-in Submission · R1 2:47 — UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · July 19, 2025
5/8Sig. strikes
8/19Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Kennedy Nzechukwu 13-5 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 4:51 — UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · December 7, 2024
32/69Sig. strikes
29/70Absorbed
0/2Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Mick Parkin 9-0 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 3:23 — UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · July 27, 2024
24/42Sig. strikes
34/52Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Valter Walker 11-0 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · April 6, 2024
58/102Sig. strikes
33/67Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:43Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Waldo Cortes-Acosta 9-1 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 3:01 — UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · August 26, 2023
14/22Sig. strikes
15/45Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Karl Williams 0-0 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · March 11, 2023
26/46Sig. strikes
38/58Absorbed
0/1Takedowns
0:29Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Martin Buday 10-1 walk-in Decision - Split · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz · August 13, 2022
118/273Sig. strikes
66/188Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts

Walk-in records count UFC bouts in this database. For the pre-UFC career, see the record breakdown below or the Tapology button up top.

Record breakdown

UFC bouts in this database
1-6-0UFC record

Wins by method

KO/TKO 0
Submission 0
Decision 1
Other 0

Losses by method

KO/TKO 3
Submission 1
Decision 2
Other 0

Fights by organization

UFC 7

Showing UFC fights only — this fighter's full pre-UFC career hasn't been synced yet. It will fill in as the weekly career backfill reaches them.

Division context

vs. 100 qualified Heavyweight fighters · tick = division mean
Striking volume /min 4.7 avg 3.4
Strikes absorbed /min 3.8 avg 3.3
Striking accuracy 49.3% avg 49.5%
Striking defense 55.3% avg 52.1%
Takedowns /15 min 0.0 avg 1.2
Takedown accuracy 0.0% avg 37.6%
Takedown defense 31.6% avg 61.8%
Sub attempts /15 min 0.0 avg 0.4
Control time 2.0% avg 21.4%
Finish rate 0.0% avg 63.7%

Headshot of Lukasz Brzeski by UFC · Official UFC athlete photo (copyright UFC; not freely licensed) · Wikimedia Commons · flattened onto dark background, cropped/resized