Lucas Almeida

He states plainly this will be 'an Asbell showcase', predicts Aswell overwhelms and finishes Almeida later in the fight -- no qualifier on the win itself, only on the method and round.

Good striker with real power, fast hands and accuracy -- genuine explosiveness and good timing on his shots. Decent grappler who stays active off his back and has a good choke arsenal, though his takedown defense is lacking; he mostly defends takedowns by striking on entries rather than true takedown defense.

Reasoned pick with a stated mechanism (volume plus takedowns exploiting Almeida's TD defense); only hedge is calling it a competitive fight, not a hedge on the winner.

A powerful, fast, accurate striker with good jiu-jitsu, including an active guard and a solid choke arsenal. His main hole is wrestling: he lacks quality offensive takedowns of his own and mostly tries to strike his way out of takedowns rather than defend them technically, which the analyst flags as unreliable.

He directly admits he isn't highly confident here, right before naming Cuamba as the deserving favorite, because a careless takedown attempt or a single power shot from Almeida could end it instantly -- a direct, stated hedge on the win itself.

Our words: an explosive, powerful striker with real speed and quickness who has won most of his fights through that explosiveness. Really good BJJ with a deep, varied choke arsenal from any position, though he generally prefers to strike. His takedown defense is below average because he tends to defend takedowns by swinging strikes rather than technique, which can put him on the mat if the strike doesn't land.

close fight by decision

Our paraphrase: Almeida is an explosive, finish-seeking striker who favors flying knees and quick, powerful combinations, and his jiu-jitsu game is rated very good -- he hunts submissions hard off his back or on top. His takedown defense is a real weakness, and he often tries to answer a shot with a strike instead of cleanly defending it, which can produce a highlight knockout but is unreliable. He is relatively new to the UFC and hasn't faced Fili's level of opposition yet.

Picks Sabatini, saying he figures to get the job done more often than not, but uses the root-beer stay-away idiom, calls this the matchup he's least confident picking on the whole card, and says he's passing on it entirely as a wager.

A solid, powerful and quick striker whose jiu-jitsu is also fairly capable (a couple of finishes on his record), but his takedown defense is not the best -- his real plan against a shot is to land a strike rather than actually sprawl, which the analyst calls a losing strategy against a true wrestler.

He commits to Tukhugov but admits aloud it ranks among his weaker convictions tonight, while crediting Almeida with a real knockout chance.

A longer, harder-hitting striker with a wild, 'between reckless and wild' style who the analyst still credits with a real knockout chance despite picking against him. His takedown defense and grappling are rated only middling.