Kai Asakura

He states Asakura has the edge, raises the weight-class move as the one real question, then resolves it himself and commits to the pick.

Asakura is rated a strong, high-volume striker with a good knee entry, an excellent jumping knee, sharp combinations, feints, and strong kicking at every level, and he recovers quickly from damage. The analyst calls his killer instinct one of the best in the division once he hurts someone. His grappling has real gaps, though: while his scrambles, back-taking, and ground-and-pound on top are rated well, his submission defense against being controlled and attacked on the ground is specifically called out as below what the analyst had hoped, and he can be taken down and held.

States Asakura has him outmatched and resolves the one possible doubt (Aoriqileng moving up from flyweight) by calling this his natural weight class.

Asakura is called a solid striker with a strong knee game (including the flying knee), good combination volume with feints, strong distance closing, kicks to every level, fast recovery when hurt, and real toughness. His grappling is good in several components -- throws, scrambles, back takes and ground-and-pound -- but his submission defense is called shakier than hoped, and he's credited with elite-level killer instinct once he hurts an opponent.

states he would be surprised if Asakura does not win and gives a real two-way mechanism (advantage standing and an even bigger advantage grappling), with only a brief nod to Asakura's lack of a UFC win so far

A solid striker built around a good step-in knee and a very good flying knee, with consistent volume, feints and kicks to every level, and a real ability to recover quickly when hurt. His grappling is a genuine weapon in this matchup: good scrambles, throws, back-taking and ground-and-pound, with a size/skill edge over this particular opponent even though grappling has been a weak spot for him against higher-level competition in the past.

gives a full mechanism (better striker, enough grappling to keep up, hits hard enough to hurt Elliott) and closes 'Kaio Sakura is my pick' with no reversal on the win itself

His last outing was a losing effort in his promotional debut against the division's champion, which the analyst treats as no real mark against him given who it was against. His stand-up is rated solid overall, and his knee strikes -- whether stepping in or flying -- are singled out as a particularly strong weapon in this specific pairing, alongside good hands, output, feinting, distance closing, a full kicking range, real pop, toughness and quick recovery between exchanges. His ground game also grades out well: scrambling ability, throws, and a knack for taking the back, with submission attempts used more to create space than to actually finish. The one real caveat is that elite wrestlers have managed to shut his offense down positionally, and separately his finishing mentality draws high praise.