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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator
Josh Parisian
Heavyweight

Josh Parisian

16-9-0 UFC 2-5-0
Volume Machine Precision Striker Suspect TD Defense Taken Down Often
6'4"Height
79"Reach
OrthodoxStance
37Age
1KO wins
0Sub wins
50.0%Finish rate
10:08Avg fight

Skill profile

Rated 0–100 · where 138 MMA has read him, his grades and tags set each axis and the stats only nudge inside his band · stats alone where he is silent · the rim is reserved for specialists
Striking — Average, rated 48 of 100 · 138 MMA: striking decent · Mar 2024 · stats read 45 → nudged +2 inside the band · tag pace: high volume (+2) · claims striking power +1, striking volume +1, striking technique +1 (+4) Accuracy — Average, rated 64 of 100 · claims striking technique +1 (+2) Striking D — Weak, rated 7 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Durability — Weak, rated 21 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Wrestling — Below avg, rated 42 of 100 · 138 MMA: wrestling decent · Mar 2024 · stats read 43 → nudged +1 inside the band · claims clinch +2 (+2) TD Defense — Below avg, rated 26 of 100 · 138 MMA tag td defense: suspect · Mar 2024 · stats read 11 → nudged -8 inside the band · claims td defense -1 (-2) Grappling — Below avg, rated 34 of 100 · 138 MMA: grappling decent · Nov 2022 · stats read 19 → nudged -7 inside the band · claims sub offense +1 (+2) Control — Below avg, rated 37 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Striking Accuracy Striking D Durability Wrestling TD Defense Grappling Control
striking decent
2 analyst reads graded this phase
  • decent UFC 299 Full Card Analysis, Breakdown, & Prediction · March 6, 2024 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night Holm vs Bueno Silva Full Card Breakdown, Analysis, and Predictions (UFC Vegas 77) · July 11, 2023 watch ↗
grappling decent
1 analyst read graded this phase
  • decent UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs Lemos Full Card Preview, Prediction, & Analysis · November 2, 2022 watch ↗
wrestling decent
2 analyst reads graded this phase
  • decent UFC 299 Full Card Analysis, Breakdown, & Prediction · March 6, 2024 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night Luque vs dos Anjos Full Card Breakdown, Analysis, And Predictions · August 8, 2023 watch ↗
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read
striking decent 2 reads
grappling decent 1 read
wrestling decent 2 reads
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read

138 MMA anchors Striking, Wrestling, TD Defense, Grappling · his tags and claims adjust Accuracy · stats alone on Striking D, Durability, Control.

Built on 70 minutes of tracked cage time across 7 statted fights — every axis is held down until there is more tape, so read this as a sketch rather than a verdict.

Volume Machine 138 MMA · Nov 2022 tags pace: high volume
Precision Striker average accuracy — rates 64 of 100 · claims striking technique +1 (+2)
Suspect TD Defense 138 MMA · Mar 2024 tags td defense: suspect
Taken Down Often put on his back 14 times · 3.0 per 15 min
Career rates — the raw numbers behind the chart
Sig. strikes landed / min4.37
Sig. strikes absorbed / min4.87
Striking accuracy47.8%
Striking defense41.8%
Knockdowns / 15 min0.0
Takedowns / 15 min1.06
Takedown accuracy33.3%
Takedown defense41.7%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.0
Control time13.8%
Record vs .500+ opponents0-1

Insider info

4 analyst reads · 138 MMA · our paraphrase, never his words
vs Robelis Despaigne coinflip UFC 299 Full Card Analysis, Breakdown, & Prediction · March 6, 2024
strikingdecent wrestlingdecent grapplingdecent

Explicitly says he doesn't know much about Despaigne and describes the pick as a 'dance with the devil' on physical tools alone; closes by telling viewers to stay away from betting either side.

Heavyweight with decent striking built on real volume and a spinning back fist used unusually -- as a forward-moving tool to close distance rather than a retreat move -- which the analyst says works for him. Decent wrestling shows in his ability to grind opponents against the cage, but his takedown defense is called out as a clear weakness, and he comes in on a mixed recent UFC run while giving up significant size and reach.

Strengthstriking volume
Strengthspinning back fist used to close distance
Strengthcage-grinding wrestling
Weaknesstakedown defense
Weaknesstrouble closing distance by conventional means
Weaknesssize/reach disadvantage
td defense · suspect
vs Martin Buday clear UFC Fight Night Luque vs dos Anjos Full Card Breakdown, Analysis, And Predictions · August 8, 2023 · 1 read since
wrestlingdecent strikingdecent grapplingdecent

Calls Buday the safe side of the matchup, reasoning from his cage control and power rather than hedging the outcome.

A decent wrestler who can grind opponents against the cage but whose own takedown defense is not good; on the feet he throws good volume and an unusual, fully-rotating spinning backfist that has landed before, though the analyst wishes he used it more.

Strengthcan wear on opponents against the cage
Strengthgood volume striking
Strengthan effective, unusual spinning backfist
Weaknesstakedown defense isn't very good
td defense · suspect
vs Walt Harris coinflip UFC Fight Night Holm vs Bueno Silva Full Card Breakdown, Analysis, and Predictions (UFC Vegas 77) · July 11, 2023 · 2 reads since
strikingdecent grapplingdecent

Commits to Harris but immediately adds that he does not feel good about the pick -- a direct hedge on the win itself.

A decent-volume striker with a tricky spinning back fist he has not used enough, whose main path is grinding on opponents against the cage with his wrestling to slow them down, though his own takedown defense is not good if the fight stays standing.

StrengthDecent striking volume, has a genuine spinning-back-fist threat
StrengthWrestling built around wearing opponents down against the cage
WeaknessTakedown defense is not good
td defense · suspect
vs Chase Sherman coinflip UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs Lemos Full Card Preview, Prediction, & Analysis · November 2, 2022 · 3 reads since
grapplingdecent

states a preference for Sherman twice over, immediately framed by telling viewers to stay off this fight unless they bet every card no matter what

Credited with good (board-matching) volume, just a notch below Sherman's own, and called the probable better grappler of the two. The analyst is openly puzzled by his 3-2 last-five record relative to how he rates him, and concedes Sherman is likely the better boxer and will probably win more exchanges if the fight stays standing, though he does not write Parisian off as unable to hit back.

Strengthgood volume
Strengthprobably the better grappler in this matchup
Strengthstill capable of hitting hard even if outboxed
Weaknessanalyst is puzzled by how he has gone 3-2 given his read of him
Weaknesslikely the lesser boxer, expected to lose more standing exchanges
pace · high volume

Striking trend

Sig. strikes/min, last 7 fights · green = win
November 28, 2020 vs Parker Porter — 7.6/min (L) Nov '20 June 19, 2021 vs Roque Martinez — 5.27/min (W) Jun '21 December 18, 2021 vs Don'Tale Mayes — 0.74/min (L) Dec '21 June 25, 2022 vs Alan Baudot — 5.21/min (W) Jun '22 February 18, 2023 vs Jamal Pogues — 2.47/min (L) Feb '23 August 12, 2023 vs Martin Buday — 6.22/min (L) — only 4.2 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Aug '23 March 9, 2024 vs Robelis Despaigne — 6.67/min (L) — only 0.3 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Mar '24

Fight history

7 UFC bouts · newest first · opponent records as of fight night
L Robelis Despaigne 4-0 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 0:18 — UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · March 9, 2024
2/5Sig. strikes
7/9Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Martin Buday 12-1 walk-in Submission · R1 4:11 — UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · August 12, 2023
26/61Sig. strikes
42/67Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:13Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Jamal Pogues 0-0 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · February 18, 2023
37/113Sig. strikes
33/60Absorbed
1/2Takedowns
1:12Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Alan Baudot 8-3 walk-in KO/TKO · R2 3:04 — UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · June 25, 2022
42/68Sig. strikes
49/75Absorbed
3/4Takedowns
3:09Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Don'Tale Mayes 8-4 walk-in KO/TKO · R3 3:26 — UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · December 18, 2021
10/16Sig. strikes
25/41Absorbed
0/2Takedowns
0:21Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Roque Martinez 15-7-2 walk-in Decision - Split · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige · June 19, 2021
79/160Sig. strikes
64/114Absorbed
1/7Takedowns
4:23Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Parker Porter 10-6 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark · November 28, 2020
114/226Sig. strikes
126/228Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:28Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts

Walk-in records count UFC bouts in this database. For the pre-UFC career, see the record breakdown below or the Tapology button up top.

Record breakdown

Full pro career (Wikipedia, results only)
16-9-0Pro record
Scorpion Fighting SystemGym / team

Wins by method

KO/TKO 11
Submission 3
Decision 2
Other 0

Losses by method

KO/TKO 4
Submission 2
Decision 3
Other 0

Fights by organization

UFC 7
Total Warrior Combat 3
WXC 2
Dana White's Contender Series 2
Oktagon 1
ARES FC 1
CLIP 1
Smuggler's 1

+ 7 more organizations in the full career list

Full career — 25 fights, every organization
OpponentMethodEventOrg RdTime
L Lazar Todev TKO (knees to the body) Oktagon 83
January 31, 2026
Oktagon 2 4:55
W Marcus Maulding TKO (punches) WXC 99
December 5, 2025
WXC 1 2:50
L Robelis Despaigne TKO (punches) UFC 299
March 9, 2024
UFC 1 0:18
L Martin Buday Submission (kimura) UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos
August 12, 2023
UFC 1 4:11
L Jamal Pogues Decision (unanimous) UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield
February 18, 2023
UFC 3 5:00
W Alan Baudot TKO (punches) UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot
June 25, 2022
UFC 2 3:04
L Don'Tale Mayes TKO (elbows) UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus
December 18, 2021
UFC 3 3:26
W Roque Martinez Decision (split) UFC on ESPN: The Korean Zombie vs. Ige
June 19, 2021
UFC 3 5:00
L Parker Porter Decision (unanimous) UFC on ESPN: Smith vs. Clark
November 28, 2020
UFC 3 5:00
W Chad Johnson KO (punches) Dana White's Contender Series 30
August 25, 2020
Dana White's Contender Series 1 3:43
W Marcus Maulding TKO (punches) WXC 86: Warrior Wednesday 11
January 29, 2020
WXC 1 3:57
W Matunga Djikasa TKO (punches) ARES FC 1
December 14, 2019
ARES FC 2 4:16
W Charles Brown TKO (punches) CLIP: Motor City Cagefights 7
October 18, 2019
CLIP 1 1:55
W Victor Jones TKO (submission to punches) Smuggler's: Rumble on the River
August 31, 2019
Smuggler's 2 2:16
W Alejandro Santiago TKO (punches) NATO: Extreme Warriors 2
April 18, 2019
NATO 1 4:41
L Brett Martin Submission (kimura) Lights Out Championship 2
February 16, 2019
Lights Out Championship 1 1:08
W Greg Rebello KO (spinning backfist) Dana White's Contender Series 11
June 26, 2018
Dana White's Contender Series 1 1:31
W Zach Thumb TKO (punches) LFA 38
April 27, 2018
LFA 1 2:39
L Tony Lopez TKO (punches) KOTC: Supremacy
April 29, 2017
KOTC 2 3:27
W Nathan Bryant Decision (majority) Caged Power 11
February 24, 2017
Caged Power 3 5:00
W Josh Burns TKO (punches) TWC Pro Series: Anderson vs. Veerella
November 12, 2016
TWC Pro Series 2 1:50
W Anthony Coleman Submission (triangle choke) Dual Combat Sports 5
June 25, 2016
Dual Combat Sports 2 1:18
W Rasheed Oruche Submission (keylock) Total Warrior Combat 28
November 21, 2015
Total Warrior Combat 2 2:03
L Ryan Pokryfky Decision (unanimous) Total Warrior Combat 27
June 20, 2015
Total Warrior Combat 3 5:00
W Destin Allen TKO (punches) Total Warrior Combat 26
November 22, 2014
Total Warrior Combat 1 2:25

Career history from the fighter's Wikipedia record table (Josh Parisian) — results only, no strike stats; UFC bouts are marked and carry full stats in the fight history above.

Division context

vs. 100 qualified Heavyweight fighters · tick = division mean
Striking volume /min 4.4 avg 3.4
Strikes absorbed /min 4.9 avg 3.3
Striking accuracy 47.8% avg 49.5%
Striking defense 41.8% avg 52.1%
Takedowns /15 min 1.1 avg 1.2
Takedown accuracy 33.3% avg 37.6%
Takedown defense 41.7% avg 61.8%
Sub attempts /15 min 0.0 avg 0.4
Control time 13.8% avg 21.4%
Finish rate 50.0% avg 63.7%

Headshot of Josh Parisian by UFC · Official UFC athlete photo (copyright UFC; not freely licensed) · Wikimedia Commons · flattened onto dark background, cropped/resized