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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator
Featherweight · “Kuya”

Josh Culibao

11-4-1 UFC 3-4-1
Hard To Take Down Striker
5'10"Height
73"Reach
OrthodoxStance
32Age
0KO wins
1Sub wins
33.3%Finish rate
13:07Avg fight

Skill profile

Rated 0–100 · where 138 MMA has read him, his grades and tags set each axis and the stats only nudge inside his band · stats alone where he is silent · the rim is reserved for specialists
Striking — Average, rated 64 of 100 · 138 MMA: striking good · Aug 2024 · stats read 56 → nudged -0 inside the band · tag ko power: good (+3) · claims striking power +1, striking technique +1, kicking +1 (+4) Accuracy — Average, rated 48 of 100 · claims striking technique +1 (+2) Striking D — Average, rated 62 of 100 · claims striking defense -2 (-6) Durability — Average, rated 57 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Wrestling — Weak, rated 12 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis TD Defense — Above avg, rated 73 of 100 · 138 MMA tag td defense: good · Aug 2024 · stats read 48 → nudged -3 inside the band · claims td defense +1 (+2) Grappling — Below avg, rated 39 of 100 · 138 MMA: grappling decent · Aug 2024 · stats read 34 → nudged -2 inside the band · claims ground and pound +2 (+2) Control — Weak, rated 16 of 100 · claims ground and pound +2 (+3) Striking Accuracy Striking D Durability Wrestling TD Defense Grappling Control
striking good
4 analyst reads graded this phase
  • good UFC 305 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · August 14, 2024 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Tuivasa vs Tybura Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown (UFC Vegas 88) · March 12, 2024 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Aspinall vs Tybura Full Card Breakdown, Analysis, and Predictions (UFC London) · July 18, 2023 watch ↗
  • good UFC 284 Full Card Breakdown, Analysis, And Prediction · February 7, 2023 watch ↗
grappling decent
3 analyst reads graded this phase
  • decent UFC 305 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · August 14, 2024 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night Tuivasa vs Tybura Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown (UFC Vegas 88) · March 12, 2024 watch ↗
  • decent UFC 284 Full Card Breakdown, Analysis, And Prediction · February 7, 2023 watch ↗
wrestling not yet read
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read
striking good 4 reads
grappling decent 3 reads
wrestling not yet read
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read

138 MMA anchors Striking, TD Defense, Grappling · his tags and claims adjust Accuracy, Striking D, Control · stats alone on Durability, Wrestling.

Hard To Take Down above avg td defense — rates 73 of 100 · 138 MMA tag td defense: good · Aug 2024
Striker average striking — rates 64 of 100 · 138 MMA: striking good · Aug 2024
Career rates — the raw numbers behind the chart
Sig. strikes landed / min3.41
Sig. strikes absorbed / min3.04
Striking accuracy44.8%
Striking defense59.9%
Knockdowns / 15 min0.57
Takedowns / 15 min0.0
Takedown accuracy0.0%
Takedown defense65.6%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.29
Control time6.6%
Record vs .500+ opponents1-2

Insider info

4 analyst reads · 138 MMA · our paraphrase, never his words
vs Ricardo Ramos lean UFC 305 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · August 14, 2024
strikinggood grapplingdecent

Picks Culibao mainly because he can't trust how Ramos will show up, not because Culibao's own path is assured -- his best route needs a specific game-plan adjustment, and the analyst admits real uncertainty about whether Culibao actually makes that adjustment.

Feet-first striker with real power, sharp leg kicks, and comfort in either stance, backed by a secondary grappling game -- decent takedown defense and heavy ground-and-pound -- though his own striking defense is a little suspect. The analyst's favored path for him is to keep the fight standing and ideally mix in a well-timed takedown plus top control around the midpoint.

Strengthgood power striking with sharp leg kicks
Strengthcomfortable in either stance
Strengthdecent takedown defense
Strengthheavy ground-and-pound if it does hit the mat
Weaknessstriking defense is a little suspect -- vulnerable to Ramos's wild/spinning output
ko power · goodtd defense · good
vs Danny Silva coinflip UFC Fight Night Tuivasa vs Tybura Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown (UFC Vegas 88) · March 12, 2024 · 1 read since
strikinggood grapplingdecent

He audibly flip-flops between both fighters on air, then closes with the root-beer idiom and tells viewers plainly that wagering on this one isn't necessary. Per the standing rule, the idiom plus that stay-off-it advice together mean coinflip, not just caution.

Good striker with real power and a standout leg kick, comfortable switching his lead stance, but absorbs more volume than is ideal against a dangerous puncher. A decent grappler with good takedown defense and heavy ground-and-pound once on top, highlighted by a recent first career submission win.

Strengthgood power
Strengthstandout leg kick
Strengthfights from either stance
Strengthdecent grappling, good TD defense
Strengthheavy ground-and-pound
Weaknessgets hit quite a bit
vs Lerone Murphy coinflip UFC Fight Night Aspinall vs Tybura Full Card Breakdown, Analysis, and Predictions (UFC London) · July 18, 2023 · 2 reads since
strikinggood grapplingdecent

Takes Murphy but states outright that his confidence is very low; separately, a root-beer wager-caution idiom marks this as a watch-don't-bet fight.

Culibao is a good striker with power and leg kicks who can fight from either stance, and his grappling is improving -- heavy ground-and-pound, good takedown defense, and an expanding submission arsenal shown in his last win. The analyst explicitly credits him with getting better every fight.

Strengthgood power/leg-kick striking
Strengtheither-stance striking
Strengthheavy ground and pound
Strengthtakedown defense
vs Melsik Baghdasaryan coinflip UFC 284 Full Card Breakdown, Analysis, And Prediction · February 7, 2023 · 3 reads since
strikinggood grapplingdecent

The source audio itself is undecided, so this is recorded as an honest ambiguity rather than a forced guess. He narrates switching his lean back and forth several times across the chapter (toward one man, then the other, then back again), and the clause that finally names a winner is too garbled to resolve cleanly in the transcript. Baghdasaryan is the last name he states clearly before that garble, so it is the recorded verdict -- but two separate hedge types sit beside it: plain outcome doubt (he says outright he lacks a confident read on who the better fighter is) and, distinctly, wager caution (the standard idiom plus an explicit refusal to stake money on it). Both are kept apart per COMMON's taxonomy rather than merged. Confidence is coinflip given the repeated switching and the stated absence of a confident read.

Primarily a striker with a reach edge who mixes in some grappling and wrestling; his ground-and-pound is called very heavy, and his boxing carries real power behind a leg kick used to set up his hands. Decent in the clinch/grappling category overall. The clean, non-excluded content on him runs through segs 0-2.

Strengthheavy ground-and-pound
Strengthgood boxing power, leg kick used to set up hands
Strengthreach advantage

Striking trend

Sig. strikes/min, last 8 fights · green = win
February 22, 2020 vs Jalin Turner — 1.5/min (L) Feb '20 October 3, 2020 vs Charles Jourdain — 3.07/min (D) Oct '20 May 22, 2021 vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke — 3.53/min (W) May '21 June 11, 2022 vs SeungWoo Choi — 3.4/min (W) Jun '22 February 11, 2023 vs Melsik Baghdasaryan — 2.27/min (W) Feb '23 July 22, 2023 vs Lerone Murphy — 1.53/min (L) Jul '23 March 16, 2024 vs Danny Silva — 5.8/min (L) Mar '24 August 17, 2024 vs Ricardo Ramos — 4.67/min (L) Aug '24

Fight history

8 UFC bouts · newest first · opponent records as of fight night
L Ricardo Ramos 16-6 walk-in Decision - Split · R3 5:00 — UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · August 17, 2024
70/127Sig. strikes
27/118Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
1:30Control
1Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Danny Silva 0-0 walk-in Decision - Split · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · March 16, 2024
87/202Sig. strikes
45/107Absorbed
0/4Takedowns
0:03Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Lerone Murphy 12-0-1 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · July 22, 2023
23/59Sig. strikes
59/109Absorbed
0/2Takedowns
1:30Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Melsik Baghdasaryan 7-1 walk-in Submission · R2 2:02 — UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · February 11, 2023
16/45Sig. strikes
26/44Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:14Control
0Knockdowns
1Sub attempts
W SeungWoo Choi 10-4 walk-in Decision - Split · R3 5:00 — UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka · June 11, 2022
51/111Sig. strikes
46/163Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:58Control
2Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 36-9 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · May 22, 2021
53/104Sig. strikes
17/63Absorbed
0/1Takedowns
0:04Control
0Knockdowns
1Sub attempts
D Charles Jourdain 10-3 walk-in Decision - Split · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana · October 3, 2020
46/124Sig. strikes
44/101Absorbed
0/7Takedowns
2:28Control
1Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Jalin Turner 8-5 walk-in KO/TKO · R2 3:01 — UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hooker · February 22, 2020
12/28Sig. strikes
55/91Absorbed
0/3Takedowns
0:09Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts

Walk-in records count UFC bouts in this database. For the pre-UFC career, see the record breakdown below or the Tapology button up top.

Record breakdown

Full pro career (Wikipedia, results only)
11-4-1Pro record
Igor MMAGym / team

Wins by method

KO/TKO 5
Submission 1
Decision 5
Other 0

Losses by method

KO/TKO 1
Submission 0
Decision 3
Other 0

Draws: 1

Fights by organization

UFC 8
Urban Fight Night 3
Superfight MMA 2
Hex Fight Series 2
Diamondback FC 1
Full career — 16 fights, every organization
OpponentMethodEventOrg RdTime
L Ricardo Ramos Decision (split) UFC 305
August 18, 2024
UFC 3 5:00
L Danny Silva Decision (split) UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura
March 16, 2024
UFC 3 5:00
L Lerone Murphy Decision (unanimous) UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura
July 22, 2023
UFC 3 5:00
W Melsik Baghdasaryan Submission (rear-naked choke) UFC 284
February 12, 2023
UFC 2 2:02
W Choi Seung-woo Decision (split) UFC 275
June 11, 2022
UFC 3 5:00
W Shayilan Nuerdanbieke Decision (unanimous) UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt
May 22, 2021
UFC 3 5:00
D Charles Jourdain Draw (split) UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Aldana
October 4, 2020
UFC 3 5:00
L Jalin Turner TKO (punches) UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hooker
February 23, 2020
UFC 2 3:01
W Josh Payne TKO (punches) Superfight MMA 10
March 1, 2019
Superfight MMA 1 3:02
W Rodolfo Marques TKO (head kick and punches) Diamondback FC 7
November 10, 2018
Diamondback FC 4 0:00
W James McGlashan Decision (majority) Urban Fight Night 13
December 2, 2017
Urban Fight Night 3 5:00
W Jordan Cameron Decision (split) Hex Fight Series 8
March 31, 2017
Hex Fight Series 5 5:00
W Raphael Berthet TKO (punch to the body and soccer kicks) Hex Fight Series 7
December 2, 2016
Hex Fight Series 5 1:35
W Simon Arentz TKO (punches) Urban Fight Night 8
August 27, 2016
Urban Fight Night 1 4:49
W Brad Shortland Decision (majority) Urban Fight Night 7
May 7, 2016
Urban Fight Night 3 5:00
W Paul Traish TKO (punches) Superfight MMA 2
February 19, 2016
Superfight MMA 1 4:28

Career history from the fighter's Wikipedia record table (Joshua Culibao) — results only, no strike stats; UFC bouts are marked and carry full stats in the fight history above.

Division context

vs. 134 qualified Featherweight fighters · tick = division mean
Striking volume /min 3.4 avg 3.6
Strikes absorbed /min 3.0 avg 3.6
Striking accuracy 44.8% avg 45.0%
Striking defense 59.9% avg 55.3%
Takedowns /15 min 0.0 avg 1.5
Takedown accuracy 0.0% avg 37.4%
Takedown defense 65.6% avg 60.2%
Sub attempts /15 min 0.3 avg 0.6
Control time 6.6% avg 20.1%
Finish rate 33.3% avg 44.2%