Jose Montanha

Picks Montanha only on the condition he avoids pulling guard, then piles on repeated 'but' qualifiers undercutting his own pick -- a direct hedge on the win itself.

A decent striker, rated with a touch more punching pop than tonight's opponent, who likes to disguise an entry as a punch and convert it into a grappling threat. His game is really built around jiu-jitsu-based grappling: strong top pressure, a solid array of submissions, and good positional advancement. The one major red flag is a habit of pulling guard, which worked on the regional scene but is called a serious liability at UFC heavyweight, where the analyst says it could cost him the fight if he does it here.