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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator
Joel Alvarez
Welterweight · “El Fenomeno”

Joel Alvarez

23-4-0 UFC 8-4-0
Submission Threat Finisher Suspect TD Defense
6'3"Height
77"Reach
OrthodoxStance
33Age
4KO wins
3Sub wins
87.5%Finish rate
8:19Avg fight

Skill profile

Rated 0–100 · where 138 MMA has read him, his grades and tags set each axis and the stats only nudge inside his band · stats alone where he is silent · the rim is reserved for specialists
Striking — Average, rated 65 of 100 · 138 MMA: striking good · Aug 2026 · stats read 64 → nudged +2 inside the band · claims striking technique +3, kicking +1 (+6) Accuracy — Strong, rated 92 of 100 · claims striking technique +3 (+6) Striking D — Weak, rated 13 of 100 · claims striking defense -2 (-6) Durability — Average, rated 65 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Wrestling — Weak, rated 9 of 100 · claims td offense +1, clinch +1 (+3) TD Defense — Below avg, rated 28 of 100 · 138 MMA tag td defense: suspect · Aug 2026 · stats read 19 → nudged -5 inside the band · claims td defense -2, getup +2 (-1) Grappling — Strong, rated 89 of 100 · 138 MMA: grappling solid · Aug 2026 · stats read 60 → nudged -6 inside the band · tag sub threat: elite (+12) · claims sub offense +3, ground and pound +1 (+6) Control — Below avg, rated 27 of 100 · claims top control +1, ground and pound +1 (+6) Striking Accuracy Striking D Durability Wrestling TD Defense Grappling Control
striking good
3 analyst reads graded this phase
  • good UFC 330 · August 12, 2026 watch ↗
  • good UFC 328 Full Card Preview & Predictions · May 2, 2026 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Oliveira vs Gamrot Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · October 6, 2025 watch ↗
grappling solid
3 analyst reads graded this phase
  • solid UFC 330 · August 12, 2026 watch ↗
  • solid UFC 328 Full Card Preview & Predictions · May 2, 2026 watch ↗
  • solid UFC Fight Night Oliveira vs Gamrot Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · October 6, 2025 watch ↗
wrestling not yet read
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read
striking good 3 reads
grappling solid 3 reads
wrestling not yet read
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read

138 MMA anchors Striking, TD Defense, Grappling · his tags and claims adjust Accuracy, Striking D, Wrestling, Control · stats alone on Durability.

Submission Threat 138 MMA · Aug 2026 tags sub threat: elite
Finisher 88% of wins by knockout or submission (4 KO, 3 sub)
Suspect TD Defense 138 MMA · Aug 2026 tags td defense: suspect
Career rates — the raw numbers behind the chart
Sig. strikes landed / min4.59
Sig. strikes absorbed / min4.13
Striking accuracy52.8%
Striking defense47.6%
Knockdowns / 15 min0.15
Takedowns / 15 min0.15
Takedown accuracy33.3%
Takedown defense48.3%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.9
Control time9.6%
Record vs .500+ opponents6-3

Insider info

5 analyst reads · 138 MMA · our paraphrase, never his words
vs Chidi Njokuani lean UFC 330 · August 12, 2026
strikinggood grapplingsolid

He picks Alvarez on the grounds that he simply has more ways to win, and concedes the opponent may be the better striker. Reasoned rather than emphatic.

A career grappler who has built a real striking game on top, taking this bout on short notice -- something the analyst thinks the move up in weight now makes viable for him, where the old size cut demanded a full camp. Standing he works behind a jab he can build from, with adequate power, long-standing comfort throwing knees, and newer body work. What makes him aggressive on the feet is a structural advantage rather than confidence: being taken down costs his opponent more than it costs him, so he can afford risk. On the mat the assessment is unambiguous -- an enormous submission arsenal weighted toward chokes, set up with strikes, with good transitions and the ability to sweep from underneath. The analyst's framing is that time spent on the ground with him is time spent in danger. The one clear hole is his own takedown defence.

Strengthjab he can build combinations from
Strengthlong-established knee game
Strengthnewly added body work
Strengthaggressive standing because takedowns favour him
Strengthenormous submission arsenal, chokes especially
Strengthsets up submissions with ground strikes
Strengthgood transitions and can sweep from the bottom
Weaknesstakedown defence is not good
sub threat · elitetd defense · suspect
vs Yaroslav Amosov lean UFC 328 Full Card Preview & Predictions · May 2, 2026 · 1 read since
strikinggood grapplingsolid

calls it close multiple times, concedes the aggression plan could also backfire

An aggressive, constantly-advancing striker who the analyst says has recently added a real jab to go with his long-standing knees, and has started working the body more - described as genuine, noticeable improvement. His grappling is elite-level on the attacking side (sweeps, transitions, and a submission arsenal called pretty much elite, mostly chokes set up off his own ground-and-pound) but he essentially has no takedown defense and will let opponents take him down by design.

Strengthconstant forward aggression
Strengthnewly added jab alongside long-standing knees
Strengthimproving body work
Strengthelite-level submission arsenal, especially chokes
Strengthvery good sweeps and transitions off his back
Weaknesstakedown defense is effectively absent
sub threat · elitetd defense · broken
vs Vicente Luque lean UFC Fight Night Oliveira vs Gamrot Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · October 6, 2025 · 2 reads since
strikinggood grapplingsolid

He names Alvarez as the pick twice and independently ('Alvarez is the side'), backed by Alvarez's own aggressive, well-rounded profile; the surviving, non-excluded reasoning is thinner than his stated firmness, so recorded as lean rather than clear (see review_flags on the excluded material).

Good, very aggressive striker with decent power, a good jab and good knees who works the body well. His striking threat is compounded by a live takedown attempt, since his own takedown defense is terrible, though he usually prefers to grapple anyway -- where his toolbox is massive: a strong, choke-focused submission arsenal set up off his ground and pound, with excellent transitions and the ability to sweep from the bottom.

Strengthaggression
Strengthjab
Strengthknees
Strengthbody work
Strengthsubmission arsenal (chokes)
Strengthtransitions
Strengthsweeps from bottom
Weaknesstakedown defense (rarely exploited since he wants the fight there anyway)
ko power · decenttd defense · brokensub threat · elite
vs Drakkar Klose lean UFC Fight Night Covington vs Buckley Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown (UFC Tampa) · December 10, 2024 · 3 reads since

Commits to an Alvarez finish, but frames it as conditional on who wins the striking exchange, and openly allows the fight gets genuinely interesting if Klose comes out ahead there.

Off-ladder 'strong' grappling skill set, per the board's own heading -- immense submission arsenal, very aggressive at attacking chokes, ground-and-pound to set up subs -- with poor takedown defense that suits his preference to end the fight on the mat either way. The analyst's central point this video is an explicit striking improvement: a slick jab, improving knees, and now ripping body shots, visibly better than in a recent fight against a quality opponent. Picked for a finish, likely a submission.

Strengthimmense submission arsenal, aggressive at attacking chokes
Strengthvisibly improved striking: slick jab, better knees, rips body shots
Weaknesspoor takedown defense
sub threat · elite
vs Marc Diakiese emphatic UFC Fight Night Aspinall vs Tybura Full Card Breakdown, Analysis, and Predictions (UFC London) · July 18, 2023 · 4 reads since

Calls Alvarez 'a pick all day' and says he's 'definitely going' with him -- repeated, unhedged; analyst discloses he has already wagered on Alvarez, a wager disclosure kept separate from, but reinforcing, the analytical pick.

Alvarez has a strong, submission-heavy grappling game -- 16 of 19 career wins by submission, a large toolbox built around chokes helped by his long reach -- and good, aggressive, dangerous striking with knees up the middle, though he is hittable on defense. The analyst calls him the pick all day and already has money on him.

Strengthsubmission-heavy grappling (16 of 19 wins)
Strengthlarge toolbox, long choking arms
Strengthgood/aggressive striking with knees
Weaknesshittable, mostly-offense defense
sub threat · elite

Striking trend

Sig. strikes/min, last 8 fights · green = win
November 13, 2021 vs Thiago Moises — 14.59/min (W) — only 3.0 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Nov '21 February 26, 2022 vs Arman Tsarukyan — 1.01/min (L) Feb '22 July 22, 2023 vs Marc Diakiese — 4.45/min (W) Jul '23 August 3, 2024 vs Elves Brener — 6.99/min (W) Aug '24 December 14, 2024 vs Drakkar Klose — 7.14/min (W) — only 2.8 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Dec '24 October 11, 2025 vs Vicente Luque — 5.93/min (W) Oct '25 May 9, 2026 vs Yaroslav Amosov — 1.29/min (L) May '26 August 15, 2026 vs Chidi Njokuani — 4.93/min (L) Aug '26

Fight history

12 UFC bouts · newest first · opponent records as of fight night
L Chidi Njokuani 25-12 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · August 15, 2026
74/164Sig. strikes
155/229Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:26Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Yaroslav Amosov 28-1 walk-in Submission · R2 1:13 — UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · May 9, 2026
8/22Sig. strikes
16/28Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Vicente Luque 23-11-1 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · October 11, 2025
89/148Sig. strikes
30/99Absorbed
1/1Takedowns
6:30Control
0Knockdowns
1Sub attempts
W Drakkar Klose 15-2-1 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 2:48 — UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · December 14, 2024
20/24Sig. strikes
7/13Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:04Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Elves Brener 3-1 walk-in KO/TKO · R3 3:36 — UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · August 3, 2024
95/141Sig. strikes
45/97Absorbed
0/1Takedowns
0:51Control
1Knockdowns
1Sub attempts
W Marc Diakiese 16-6 walk-in Submission · R2 4:26 — UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · July 22, 2023
42/75Sig. strikes
20/46Absorbed
0/1Takedowns
1:26Control
0Knockdowns
1Sub attempts
L Arman Tsarukyan 17-2 walk-in KO/TKO · R2 1:57 — UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green · February 26, 2022
7/10Sig. strikes
36/53Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Thiago Moises 15-5 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 3:01 — UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · November 13, 2021
44/73Sig. strikes
11/24Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:02Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Alexander Yakovlev 24-10-1 walk-in Submission · R1 3:00 — UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · October 24, 2020
4/6Sig. strikes
1/1Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
2Sub attempts
W Joe Duffy 4-3 walk-in Submission · R1 2:25 — UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 · July 18, 2020
18/37Sig. strikes
14/26Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
1Sub attempts
W Danilo Belluardo 0-0 walk-in KO/TKO · R2 2:22 — UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · June 1, 2019
19/41Sig. strikes
13/20Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:17Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Damir Ismagulov 18-1 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos · February 23, 2019
38/127Sig. strikes
64/150Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts

Walk-in records count UFC bouts in this database. For the pre-UFC career, see the record breakdown below or the Tapology button up top.

Record breakdown

Full pro career (Wikipedia, results only)
23-4-0Pro record
Bandog Fight ClubGym / team

Wins by method

KO/TKO 5
Submission 17
Decision 1
Other 0

Losses by method

KO/TKO 2
Submission 1
Decision 1
Other 0

Fights by organization

UFC 11
Ansgar Fighting League 6
MMA España 3
MMA Casino Fights 2
Fight Night Series 1
M-1 Challenge 1
Rage in the Cage 1
International Pro Combat 1

+ 1 more organizations in the full career list

Full career — 27 fights, every organization
OpponentMethodEventOrg RdTime
L Yaroslav Amosov Submission (arm-triangle choke) UFC 328
May 9, 2026
UFC 2 1:13
W Vicente Luque Decision (unanimous) UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
October 11, 2025
UFC 3 5:00
W Drakkar Klose KO (flying knee and punches) UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Buckley
December 14, 2024
UFC 1 2:48
W Elves Brener TKO (knees and punches) UFC on ABC: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
August 3, 2024
UFC 3 3:36
W Marc Diakiese Submission (brabo choke) UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura
July 22, 2023
UFC 2 4:26
L Arman Tsarukyan TKO (punches) UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green
February 26, 2022
UFC 2 1:57
W Thiago Moisés TKO (elbows and punches) UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodríguez
November 13, 2021
UFC 1 3:01
W Alexander Yakovlev Submission (armbar) UFC 254
October 24, 2020
UFC 1 3:00
W Joseph Duffy Submission (guillotine choke) UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2
July 19, 2020
UFC 1 2:25
W Danilo Belluardo TKO (punches) UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith
June 1, 2019
UFC 2 2:22
L Damir Ismagulov Decision (unanimous) UFC Fight Night: Błachowicz vs. Santos
February 23, 2019
UFC 3 5:00
W Radu Maxim Submission (triangle choke) Ansgar Fighting League 17
November 24, 2018
Ansgar Fighting League 1 4:29
W Julio Cesar Alves Submission (brabo choke) Ansgar Fighting League 16
September 29, 2018
Ansgar Fighting League 2 1:02
W Alexandre Ribeiro Submission (triangle choke) Ansgar Fighting League 15
May 5, 2018
Ansgar Fighting League 1 4:17
W Kevin Daniel Delgado Submission (guillotine choke) Ansgar Fighting League 14
March 17, 2018
Ansgar Fighting League 1 0:26
W Francisco Gonzalez Submission (guillotine choke) Ansgar Fighting League 13
October 14, 2017
Ansgar Fighting League 1 1:59
W Jekson Poleza Submission (triangle choke) Ansgar Fighting League 12
June 3, 2017
Ansgar Fighting League 1 1:57
W Anthony Muller TKO (punches) Fight Night Series 2
March 18, 2017
Fight Night Series 1 0:33
W Moncef Ed Doukani Submission (anaconda choke) MMA Casino Fights: Álvarez vs. Ed Doukani
October 8, 2016
MMA Casino Fights 1 1:45
W Jose Luis Bravo Submission (triangle choke) MMA Casino Fights: Álvarez vs. Bravo
July 8, 2016
MMA Casino Fights 1 0:49
W Carlos Villar Submission (armbar) MMA España: Bandog Challenge 3
June 12, 2015
MMA España 1 4:20
L Ali Abdulkhalikov KO (spinning heel kick) M-1 Challenge 56
April 10, 2015
M-1 Challenge 1 0:34
W Graham Turner Submission (guillotine choke) Rage in the Cage 3
March 21, 2015
Rage in the Cage 3 —
W Jose Luis Bravo Submission (triangle choke) MMA España: Desafio Burgos Profight 2015
March 7, 2015
MMA España 1 3:20
W Helson Henriques Submission (anaconda choke) International Pro Combat 6
January 26, 2015
International Pro Combat 1 1:23
W Hicham Rachid Submission (triangle choke) MMA España: Bandog Challenge 2
April 12, 2014
MMA España 1 2:01
W Aratz Garmendia Submission (triangle choke) Txurdinaga Sutan: Pro Boxing & MMA
December 28, 2013
Txurdinaga Sutan 1 3:19

Career history from the fighter's Wikipedia record table (Joel Álvarez) — results only, no strike stats; UFC bouts are marked and carry full stats in the fight history above.

Division context

vs. 189 qualified Welterweight fighters · tick = division mean
Striking volume /min 4.6 avg 3.4
Strikes absorbed /min 4.1 avg 3.3
Striking accuracy 52.8% avg 45.1%
Striking defense 47.6% avg 55.2%
Takedowns /15 min 0.1 avg 1.5
Takedown accuracy 33.3% avg 40.2%
Takedown defense 48.3% avg 62.6%
Sub attempts /15 min 0.9 avg 0.6
Control time 9.6% avg 21.5%
Finish rate 87.5% avg 53.9%

Headshot of Joel Alvarez by Gowdu59 · CC0 · Wikimedia Commons · cropped and resized

Hero photo of Joel Alvarez by Jprietf · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons