Jesus Aguilar

guillotine specialist vs poor sub defense

A live underdog by the betting line, Aguilar grades as a fair-to-middling striker who presses forward and throws for power, though not heavy power, leaving him exposed to counters -- a vulnerability the analyst calls his likely downfall if he gets tagged. His real edge is on the mat: heavy takedown volume, strong scrambles and sweeps, and an elite guillotine, made harder to slip once locked because of his short arms.

Names Gurule as his outright selection for the matchup, citing a cardio/pace edge, scrambles and difficulty to hold down; acknowledges Aguilar's guillotine as a real danger but a low-probability one.

A decent, somewhat wild striker who 'wings' power shots rather than having true one-shot power -- the analyst deliberately declines to grade raw power because of this. His whole career is built on one tool: a legitimate, fight-changing guillotine, plus good sweeps/scrambles and good takedown volume.

He says Estevam is 'better everywhere' and names him the pick, but repeatedly stresses Aguilar is 'always live' off his guillotine and frames him as finish-upside value rather than fully dismissing the threat.

A live, dangerous underdog grappler built around good-volume takedowns, scrambles and sweeps, with a signature guillotine that keeps catching people. His striking is decent, with forward pressure and real power, though it's used mainly to set up the grappling and leaves him wild and open to counters. As of 2025-02-11.

His knee-jerk reaction favored Aguilar; he settles on Nicoll but admits his conviction here sits well below what the odds imply, given Nicoll is debuting far from home.

Grappling-first fighter who shoots for takedowns almost exclusively as his game plan, backed by good scrambles and sweeps, and finishes a real share of fights with a go-to guillotine even though the analyst calls that submission generally low-percentage. His striking is forward-pressing and powerful but wild, leaving him open to counters.

firmly names Mendonca as his pick and expects a finish rather than a decision; a method guess (TKO) does not count as a hedge on the win.

Jesus Aguilar is undersized for the matchup (5'4", 62in reach vs. Mendonca's 5'6", 71.5in) but has good wrestling: heavy takedown volume, good scrambles and sweeps, and a standout guillotine specialty. His striking is decent with forward pressure and power shots, but he is wild and open to counters.

States he feels pretty confident in Aguilar, names a finish lean (submission or knockout), and explicitly bets against the public money piling on Ross.

Aguilar is a submission-first wrestler who shoots a high volume of takedowns and goes hunting for the guillotine from either position, backed by a strong overall submission resume. On the feet he is forward-pressuring with real power in his shots, though he gets wild and leaves himself open to counters when he does.

The analyst affirms Taira should get the win; the only hedge is on the price, not the outcome, with a brief acknowledgment of a guillotine upset chance for Aguilar.

An 8-1 flyweight with very good grappling, especially a tight, dangerous guillotine, plus sweeps and scrambles. His striking is powerful but unpolished, and he comes forward swinging with his head down. He is at a significant size disadvantage against Taira and is a heavy betting underdog.