Dustin Stoltzfus

Picked against by way of a specific predicted sequence, but the analyst explicitly says a submission win for Stoltzfus would not surprise him. The door is deliberately left open.

The analyst's shorthand for his career is that he looks very good right up until he does not. The striking is decent and better than that at range, with real kicks and respectable output, but the defence undoes it: he steps into range with his guard already lowered and gets punished for it, and the analyst treats this as the recurring cause of his losses rather than bad luck. The grappling is the stronger half, and includes one thing he does exceptionally -- slams, one of which ended an opponent's night by injuring the shoulder. The analyst rejects the idea that win was a fluke and rates it the most impressive result held by either man in this bout. He also attacks submissions well and sweeps well from the bottom.

Names Gastelum as his selection and says he expects a Gastelum win more often than not; acknowledges Stoltzfus as a live dog with good grappling, but gives a clear mechanism (better competition, durability, a cage-takedown-defense question for Stoltzfus) rather than a bare pick.

Decent striking -- fair power, a solid kicking game, and plenty of output -- undercut by a habit of entering exchanges with his guard down, which the analyst ties directly to his losses. A good grappler: decent takedowns, pretty good slams (how he got into the UFC), attacks submissions well, pretty good sweeps.

Explicitly frames the pick as a value bet on a big underdog price, saying he'll take the shot and hope for the best even if it makes him look foolish.

Carries fair pop in his hands and a worthwhile kicking game, but his guard on the feet slips enough that a fight against him tends to get rougher for him the longer it runs, even though he is a hard man to finish outright. The mat is really where he lives, sitting just under a true solid grappler: real takedown ability including genuine slam power, dangerous submission attempts, and good sweeps worked from underneath.

names Barriault plainly as the winner with a stated mechanism (higher output, the high motor, landing damage off the cage push), but frames the matchup overall as tight and competitive -- a voiced qualifier on the win itself, not just the method.

A decent striker with decent power and pretty good kicks, but striking is where he tends to lose fights when matched against better strikers. A pretty good grappler with a large toolbox -- slams, a real submission arsenal, and sweeps from the bottom -- arguably the more talented fighter technique for technique in this matchup, but that grappling edge is set against an opponent whose forward pressure and cage work the analyst expects to close the gap.

He states plainly that Ferreira gets this one done and that he is taking Ferreira without overthinking it -- a direct mechanism (too much on the feet, physicality/aggressiveness, ability to make the fight ugly) with Stoltzfus's one live path (a submission if the fight hits the mat) explicitly conceded and weighed, not left unanswered.

A very good grappler with a large toolbox -- the analyst credits him with slams (though acknowledging thin tape evidence for it), very good sweeps, and very good submission attacking; a win here is likeliest to come by submission. His striking is 'okay': decent power, clean kicks, but he avoids trading in the pocket, and his durability is called good outside one notable exception. Coming off a big underdog win that the analyst feels the public may be over-crediting.

Analyst states "I don't have any confidence" in picking Soriano specifically because of his poor recent record -- a direct hedge on his own picked fighter's win, not a method/round qualifier.

Dustin Stoltzfus is read as a fighter with real but unproven grappling tools -- slams, a broad submission arsenal including a twister and a kneebar shown on the regional scene, and good sweeps into submission attempts -- paired with decent kicking power. The analyst's open question is whether that regional-scene grappling level actually translates to the UFC, since it has not yet been seen there.

Calls it 'cut and dry,' says he doesn't see the opponent getting the win, and invites viewers to mock him if he's wrong -- the strongest unhedged language on the card. A brief 'unless lingering injuries are an issue' aside is immediately followed by a firmer restatement, so it does not demote.

Has withdrawn from three prior scheduled fights due to injury and is 1-3 across his first UFC fights before a hard-fought decision win in his last outing, won mostly through wrestling control. Described as a primarily grappler-oriented fighter who gets hit often on the feet and has been submitted twice in the UFC -- a weakness the analyst flags as dangerous against a crafty grappler.