Denzel Freeman

Opens 'tough one to call'; closes the pick with 'don't feel good about it', and partly frames the pick as wanting fewer underdog picks on the card rather than pure conviction.

A patient, good striker who becomes most dangerous once he backs an opponent to the cage, where his power and combinations come out; away from the cage he stays reserved rather than overextending, a pattern that drew criticism after a similarly cautious debut. Also a good wrestler with good takedowns, control and ground and pound. Analyst calls him the better pure striker in this matchup but expects his cage-backing struggles to resurface against Hokit's wrestling.

Opens the whole bout with heavy epistemic hedging ("cautionary warning," "maybe it's not even happening," no odds posted at all) before giving a real mechanism for the pick (forward pressure plus top grappling); the surrounding uncertainty about two largely-unknown debutants caps conviction even though the final pick sentence itself is unhedged.

A heavyweight UFC debutant graded a good striker for the division, with good forward pressure, solid kicks and good power; he likes to back opponents to the cage and unload. That aggression leaves him open to counters. He is also a good grappler with good takedowns, control and ground and pound, and the analyst calls him the more powerful wrestler of the two.