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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator
Flyweight · “Miojo”

Daniel Lacerda

0-5-0 (1 NC)
Striker Submission Grappler
5'6"Height
70"Reach
SwitchStance
30Age
0KO wins
0Sub wins
0%Finish rate
4:18Avg fight

Skill profile

Rated 0–100 · where 138 MMA has read him, his grades and tags set each axis and the stats only nudge inside his band · stats alone where he is silent · the rim is reserved for specialists
Striking — Average, rated 65 of 100 · 138 MMA: striking good · Feb 2024 · stats read 53 → nudged -1 inside the band · tag ko power: good (+3) · claims striking power +2, striking technique +1, pressure +2 (+6) Accuracy — Average, rated 53 of 100 · claims striking technique +1 (+2) Striking D — Below avg, rated 26 of 100 · 138 MMA whiteboard: striking defence marked as a minus · stats read 1 → nudged -10 inside the band · claims striking defense -1 (-3) Durability — Weak, rated 3 of 100 · claims chin -2 (-4) Wrestling — Average, rated 49 of 100 · claims td offense +2 (+4) TD Defense — Average, rated 50 of 100 · claims td defense -2, getup -1 (-6) Grappling — Average, rated 57 of 100 · 138 MMA whiteboard: grappling good · Feb 2024 · stats read 45 → nudged -4 inside the band · claims sub offense +2 (+4) Control — Average, rated 46 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Striking Accuracy Striking D Durability Wrestling TD Defense Grappling Control
striking good
3 analyst reads graded this phase
  • good UFC Fight Night Moreno vs Royval 2 Full Card Analysis, Breakdown, & Prediction (UFC Mexico) · February 19, 2024 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs Barboza Full Card Breakdown, Predictions, & Analysis (UFC Vegas 81) · October 12, 2023 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs Shevchenko Full Card Breakdown, Predictions, & Analysis (Noche UFC) · September 13, 2023 watch ↗
grappling good whiteboard
3 analyst reads graded this phase
  • good UFC Fight Night Moreno vs Royval 2 Full Card Analysis, Breakdown, & Prediction (UFC Mexico) · February 19, 2024 · whiteboard watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs Barboza Full Card Breakdown, Predictions, & Analysis (UFC Vegas 81) · October 12, 2023 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs Shevchenko Full Card Breakdown, Predictions, & Analysis (Noche UFC) · September 13, 2023 watch ↗
wrestling not yet read
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read
striking good 3 reads
grappling good 3 reads · whiteboard
wrestling not yet read
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read

138 MMA anchors Striking, Striking D, Grappling · his tags and claims adjust Accuracy, Durability, Wrestling, TD Defense · stats alone on Control.

Built on 25 minutes of tracked cage time across 6 statted fights — every axis is held down until there is more tape, so read this as a sketch rather than a verdict.

Striker average striking — rates 65 of 100 · 138 MMA: striking good · Feb 2024
Submission Grappler average grappling — rates 57 of 100 · 138 MMA whiteboard: grappling good · Feb 2024
Career rates — the raw numbers behind the chart
Sig. strikes landed / min3.95
Sig. strikes absorbed / min8.28
Striking accuracy45.5%
Striking defense35.0%
Knockdowns / 15 min1.74
Takedowns / 15 min2.32
Takedown accuracy50.0%
Takedown defense—
Sub attempts / 15 min1.16
Control time15.9%
Record vs .500+ opponents0-1

Insider info

3 analyst reads · 138 MMA · our paraphrase, never his words
vs Edgar Chairez clear UFC Fight Night Moreno vs Royval 2 Full Card Analysis, Breakdown, & Prediction (UFC Mexico) · February 19, 2024
strikinggood grapplinggood

picks Chairez again and expects a stoppage this time -- a repeat pick from their first (no-contest) meeting, no hedge on the win; parlay/price talk is about the betting line, not the outcome.

Daniel Lacerda (ASR consistently renders this as 'Lera'/'Dan Lera'; board spelling 'Lacerda' is authoritative) is a good, aggressive, forward-pressure striker who spins often and fights kill-or-be-killed, with shaky defense. His jiu-jitsu is aggressive about attacking submissions but he can end up stuck underneath on bottom, and his cardio is a real question, worsened by fighting at elevation.

Strengthgood, powerful, aggressive forward pressure
Strengthaggressively attacks submissions
Weaknessdefense isn't good, kill-or-be-killed
Weaknesscan get stuck on bottom
Weaknesscardio gases out fast, worsened by elevation
vs Edgar Chairez emphatic UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs Barboza Full Card Breakdown, Predictions, & Analysis (UFC Vegas 81) · October 12, 2023 · 1 read since
strikinggood grapplinggood

He says Lacerda has nothing new to show that Chairez has not already handled, plus a repeated, specific pick naming Chairez three separate times, including a stated method/time read (a finish, likely inside the first round and a half). The only hedge is that the betting line is 'too wide', a price observation, not doubt about the winner.

Labeled a good striker and good grappler on the same sparse board. In the pair's prior meeting he came forward behaving, in the analyst's words, like a banshee, pushing a heavy volume of offense and briefly getting Chairez down to land shots -- but his own defense was called pretty lacking: he got hurt, hit, taken down, and beaten up on the ground in that same fight. The analyst does not expect anything different in the rematch.

Strengthgood striker, good grappler (board label)
Strengthaggressive forward offense, did get Chairez down briefly and land shots in their first meeting
Weaknessdefense called pretty lacking in their first meeting -- got hurt, hit, taken down and beaten up on the ground
vs Edgar Chairez lean UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs Shevchenko Full Card Breakdown, Predictions, & Analysis (Noche UFC) · September 13, 2023 · 2 reads since
strikinggood grapplinggood

Explicit named pick for Chairez, but the only stated differentiator is Chairez's durability versus Lacerda's live finishing power, and the analyst calls the matchup unpredictable even while naming a winner -- language that signals real uncertainty about how it plays out. No hedge on the win itself beyond that framing, so it sits at lean rather than coinflip or clear.

A high-variance, 'kill or be killed' striker on a four-fight skid who comes forward trying to end things immediately; when that plan fails he tends to lose badly, usually by knockout. Hits hard enough to have dropped a lot of opponents, and the analyst separately credits him with good, aggressive jiu-jitsu (he attacks submissions hard). Also spins more than the analyst would like, which he flags as a liability.

Strengthreal, drop-you power when his pressure lands
Strengthgood, aggressive submission offense
Weaknessall-or-nothing approach means a bad fight tends to end badly for him (usually a KO loss)
Weaknessspins too much, which the analyst calls a risk
ko power · good

Striking trend

Sig. strikes/min, last 6 fights · green = win
October 23, 2021 vs Jeff Molina — 3.47/min (L) Oct '21 April 30, 2022 vs Francisco Figueiredo — 3.08/min (L) — only 1.3 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Apr '22 August 20, 2022 vs Victor Altamirano — 6.03/min (L) — only 3.6 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Aug '22 March 25, 2023 vs CJ Vergara — 5.29/min (L) Mar '23 September 16, 2023 vs Edgar Chairez — 1.06/min (NC) — only 3.8 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Sep '23 February 24, 2024 vs Edgar Chairez — 1.75/min (L) — only 2.3 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Feb '24

Fight history

6 UFC bouts · newest first · opponent records as of fight night
L Edgar Chairez 10-5 walk-in Submission · R1 2:17 — UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · February 24, 2024
4/17Sig. strikes
9/15Absorbed
1/1Takedowns
0:41Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
NC Edgar Chairez 10-5 walk-in Overturned · R1 3:47 — Noche UFC: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · September 16, 2023
4/14Sig. strikes
12/20Absorbed
1/2Takedowns
1:19Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L CJ Vergara 10-4-1 walk-in KO/TKO · R2 4:04 — UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · March 25, 2023
48/117Sig. strikes
83/144Absorbed
1/2Takedowns
0:40Control
2Knockdowns
2Sub attempts
L Victor Altamirano 0-1 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 3:39 — UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · August 20, 2022
22/45Sig. strikes
58/83Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:03Control
1Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Francisco Figueiredo 11-4-1 walk-in Submission · R1 1:18 — UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · April 30, 2022
4/6Sig. strikes
5/5Absorbed
1/1Takedowns
0:28Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Jeff Molina 9-2 walk-in KO/TKO · R2 0:46 — UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori · October 23, 2021
20/25Sig. strikes
47/62Absorbed
0/2Takedowns
0:55Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts

Walk-in records count UFC bouts in this database. For the pre-UFC career, see the record breakdown below or the Tapology button up top.

Record breakdown

UFC bouts in this database
0-5-0 (1 NC)UFC record

Wins by method

KO/TKO 0
Submission 0
Decision 0
Other 0

Losses by method

KO/TKO 3
Submission 2
Decision 0
Other 0

No contests: 1

Fights by organization

UFC 6

Showing UFC fights only — this fighter's full pre-UFC career hasn't been synced yet. It will fill in as the weekly career backfill reaches them.

Division context

vs. 67 qualified Flyweight fighters · tick = division mean
Striking volume /min 4.0 avg 3.4
Strikes absorbed /min 8.3 avg 3.3
Striking accuracy 45.5% avg 44.9%
Striking defense 35.0% avg 56.2%
Takedowns /15 min 2.3 avg 1.7
Takedown accuracy 50.0% avg 36.0%
Sub attempts /15 min 1.2 avg 0.7
Control time 15.9% avg 19.8%