Cory McKenna

He commits to McKenna grinding out a decision but immediately says he would not bet the moneyline, calls even the spread nerve-wracking, and tells viewers to stay away while cracking a root beer -- the idiom plus explicit stay-away advice, which maps to coinflip.

Good striker with good combinations who closes distance well, though she struggles at range because of unusually short arms. Good wrestling with powerful takedowns (more power than expected for her size) and good top pressure. A prior submission loss is attributed to the opponent's high-level jiu-jitsu rather than her own decline, though the analyst separately flags a pattern of poor in-fight decision-making.

States the pick plainly and says he feels good about it; the only hedge concerns method -- decision vs. a late finish -- not the win itself, so it doesn't demote per the confidence-bar rule.

Good striker with tight combinations who closes distance effectively despite having less reach than anyone else on the current roster, rather than getting out-ranged. Her wrestling is good too, with powerful takedowns and the top control to stay there. The analyst expects her striking entries plus her top control to be the deciding factors over a full fight.

Moderate confidence with explicit probability language: puts McKenna's chance of winning at better than a coinflip.

A good wrestler who also lands plenty on the feet, but is small, carrying the shortest reach in the entire UFC, and has poor striking defense. Her path to victory is using her wrestling to control or ground Vlismas; the analyst generally favors grapplers against strikers with weak takedown defense.