Brian Ortega

calls it 'hard to say which' is the better grappler

Said to be in a rough patch since his loss to Volkanovsky, though he has had good moments and a win since, and now moves up to lightweight. His striking stays clean with a good jab and combinations, and he remains an elite submission threat built on smooth transitions, great top and bottom control, and a deep choke arsenal including a triangle.

He commits to a winner, but openly allows the opposite path is live too, framing his read as what happens more often than not rather than a certainty.

A fairly capable striker -- a clean jab, strong front kick, tidy combinations -- and tough, having famously absorbed a large volume of punishment from a past opponent. His real identity is on the mat: a strong grappler with smooth transitions and elite control, plus a submission arsenal the analyst rates as top-tier, led by a nasty guillotine and an even better triangle. As of 2025-08-18.

He twice states he is taking Lopes with a real mechanism (early damage holds up on the cards even if Ortega claws back), but follows it with heavy hedging -- the root-beer idiom plus a clause about this matchup that cuts off before finishing, on top of naming real upside for Ortega.

A high-level Jiu-Jitsu player for MMA with a large toolbox, slick transitions, strong control and a dangerous choke-focused submission game (guillotine and triangle especially). His striking needed real work after getting exposed in a past loss, and by his own account he leveled it up -- his striking is now good, with a good jab, nice combinations and a nice front kick up the middle. He's durable and known for weathering an early storm to come back and win, though he will still absorb real damage along the way, which the analyst dislikes as a trait. His recent five-fight run (2-3) came against some of the best competition in the division. As of 2024-09-11.

Direct, repeated first-person pick naming Lopes and a specific finish mechanism (a knockout once Ortega's durability gives out); no hedge on the winner.

Elite-level jiu-jitsu by the analyst's own words here -- large toolbox, extremely slick transitions, likely the sharper of the two on top, a very good choke arsenal including a nasty guillotine and an excellent triangle. His striking became good only after he was forced to learn it, a change he credits directly to getting out-struck badly by Max Holloway. Incredibly durable and able to take a beating and keep coming, but the analyst explicitly frames his accumulated career damage as a real ceiling on that durability, and the deciding factor in the pick against him. Also tends to absorb a rough opening stretch of a fight before turning it on.

'I've got to take Yair Rodriguez' with a specific mechanism (Ortega's long layoff, fight likely to live on the feet where Rodriguez is better); no hedge on the win.

Brian Ortega is a solid grappler with a large toolbox, decent takedowns (now increasingly set up off his own strikes rather than old-style Jiu-Jitsu entries), slick transitions and a dangerous choke arsenal (triangle, guillotine). His own striking has improved since his loss to Max Holloway, including good combinations and a distinctive, hard-to-defend low front kick. He is coming off a long layoff.