Amir Albazi

repeated firm picks, agrees with the odds

He is a good striker whose grappling threat sets up a solid jab, backed by good power and good shot selection, but his main path to winning is on the ground: good takedowns with good timing, good transitions, a liking for taking the back, good control once there and a good submission arsenal built around the rear naked choke. The analyst's read is that outside of getting to Horiguchi's back, he does not have much success.

commits with 'We're going to Tyra' on the strength of a 25-minute positional-attrition read, immediately tempered with 'but close fight, good fight'.

A good but no-frills striker, built around a dependable jab, careful shot selection and real pop for the weight class, deliberately skipping the showier tools. On the mat he's rated solid across the board: quality takedowns owed mainly to sharp timing, good transitioning, a preference for working to the back, and composed control once he gets there, topped off by a genuinely dangerous submission game anchored by the rear-naked choke -- a finish praised as efficient and low-risk to chase.

firm, repeated pick with a specific, unhedged mechanism: a round-by-round score prediction (three rounds to two via control and takedowns, no finish), explicit title-shot stakes, and an explicit statement that this is Albazi's moment. He does call it a competitive, give-and-take fight, but that is outweighed here by how concrete the supporting breakdown is, unlike two earlier bouts on this card where similar competitive framing stood with no further detail and were held at lean -- flagging that distinction so the Grader can re-check it.

A solid grappler built around excellent takedown timing, really good transitions, and strong control once he gets position; his best weapon is working to the back for the rear naked choke, backed by a pretty good submission arsenal generally. Expected to be a full step ahead of Moreno on the ground even though Moreno is himself a skilled grappler. On the feet he is good -- a strong jab, fair pop on his punches, and he is selective about when he fires -- but considered outmatched there specifically against this opponent. Framed as the fighter currently on the rise, returning from a long injury layoff into what the analyst calls his moment, with a title shot riding on the result.

'I'm taking Amir al-bazi' stated directly as going 'against the grain' of public sentiment, backed by a stylistic reason (favors grapplers) and a stated belief in his upside -- not a bare pick.

Albazi is read as a striker who has improved his jab and overall striking as of late, but whose real path to winning is his grappling: a solid, constantly-transitioning grappler who is persistently threatening submissions and has good takedown timing. The analyst explicitly believes he has serious potential to rise through the division's ranks toward a title shot.

A fairly firm outcome lean (expects a finish, not a decision) paired with wager caution about the moneyline price ('the odds are crazy'); he plays an unders-rounds prop instead of the moneyline itself.

Likely the stronger all-around fighter in this matchup, with great grappling -- slick, always threatening a submission or a positional advance during transitions -- good, well-timed takedowns set up behind his own strikes rather than shot from distance, and decent boxing that benefits from the takedown threat. He can be hit a fair amount but has weathered it well across his career, facing a Costa who is fighting on short notice for his UFC debut.